Who gets elected

At a glance

Thirteen chambers, and how far each leader is from a majority

Every seat each chamber would fill, a segment per list, largest first. The thin line marks where a majority starts; the line under each bar says how many seats the largest list is short of it. Lists outside the series’ eight colours are grey; select a chamber to build a majority in it.

1. State House42 seatsSDA 9SNSD 6SDP 5HDZ BiH 4SBiH 3SDA 9 · 13 short of 22
2. Federation House98 seatsSDA 32SDP 16HDZ BiH 14SBiH 9NiP 7SDA 32 · 18 short of 50
3. RS Assembly83 seatsSNSD 34PSS 12SDS 11SNSD 34 · 8 short of 42

1. Una-Sana30 seatsSDA 10 · 6 short of 16
2. Posavina21 seatsHDZ BiH 13 · a majority alone
3. Tuzla35 seatsSDA 13 · 5 short of 18
4. Zenica-Doboj35 seatsSDA 15 · 3 short of 18
5. Bosnian Podrinje25 seatsSDA 4 · 9 short of 13
6. Central Bosnia30 seatsSDA 12 · 4 short of 16
7. Herzegovina-Neretva30 seatsHDZ BiH 13 · 3 short of 16
8. West Herzegovina23 seatsHDZ BiH 17 · a majority alone
9. Sarajevo35 seatsSDA 9, tied with SDP · 9 short of 18
10. Canton 1025 seatsHDZ BiH 7 · 6 short of 13

One winner each

The six races for one person, closest first

The Presidency’s three members and the RS president go to whoever has the most votes. The RS vice-presidents are the strongest candidates of the other two constituent peoples, so they win within their own group, not the whole ballot. Each line is the winner against the runner-up, so the margin is what you see.

1. RS vice-president, Croat

   Ivan Begić over Igor Balukčić

   31.7% – 27.2%ahead by 365 votes

2. RS vice-president, Bosniak

   Ramiz Salkić over Ćamil Duraković

   48.8% – 31.6%ahead by 3,286 votes

3. Bosniak member of the Presidency

   Denis Bećirović over Bakir Izetbegović

   38.2% – 34.0%ahead by 22,730 votes

4. Croat member of the Presidency

   Darijana Filipović over Slaven Kovačević

   46.6% – 30.5%ahead by 37,600 votes

5. President of the Republika Srpska

   Savo Minić over Branko Blanuša

   55.0% – 44.1%ahead by 54,185 votes

6. Serb member of the Presidency

   Željka Cvijanović over Marinko Božović

   55.4% – 26.5%ahead by 150,573 votes

Shares are of the votes within each race’s own group: a Federation voter picks either a Bosniak or a Croat member, and each RS vice-president is measured against their own people’s candidates.

Inside a chamber

Build a majority

Pick a chamber. Each dot is a seat, a ring a compensatory one. Tick lists to put them together and see whether they reach a majority; open a list to see who would take its seats, in the order the rules seat them.

direct compensatory

Source: Central Election Commission of BiH · preliminary count of 5 October, 08:45 am and certified compensatory lists; seats are this note’s projection, not CIK’s allocation

Still in play

Seats on a knife-edge

For every chamber and race, the fewest extra votes one list or candidate would need to change who sits. Each line is its own scenario; they do not add up. Each was found by recounting the whole chamber, compensatory seats included.

1. 19votes

   Bosnian Podrinje

   If BH demokrati won 19 more votes, enough to clear the 3% threshold:

   +1 BH demokrati→ 1−1 SDA→ 3

   Open this chamber ↑
2. 33votes

   Bosnian Podrinje

   If NS won 33 more votes, enough to clear the 3% threshold:

   +1 NS→ 1−1 SDA→ 3

   Open this chamber ↑
3. 46votes

   Posavina

   If Nezavisni-neovisni won 46 more votes, enough to clear the 3% threshold:

   +1 Nezavisni-neovisni→ 1−1 HDZ BiH→ 12

   Open this chamber ↑
4. 70votes

   Bosnian Podrinje

   If SBB won 70 more votes:

   +1 SBB→ 2−1 SDA→ 3

   Open this chamber ↑
5. 78votes

   Bosnian Podrinje

   If NiP won 78 more votes: One vote fewer would be a tie, settled by lot.

   +1 NiP→ 4−1 SDA→ 3

   Open this chamber ↑
6. 89votes

   Posavina

   If HSP BiH won 89 more votes, enough to clear the 3% threshold:

   +1 HSP BiH→ 1−1 HDZ BiH→ 12

   Open this chamber ↑

Method

How the seats were counted

The Presidency members and the RS president are elected by plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins. The RS vice-presidents are the candidates with the most votes among the two constituent peoples the president does not belong to.

Parliament and assembly seats are shared out by Sainte-Laguë, dividing each list’s votes by 1, 3, 5, 7 and so on. Only lists with at least 3% of the valid votes in the unit take part, and an independent candidate can win at most one seat.

The State House, the Federation House and the RS Assembly also have compensatory seats, for lists with at least 3% across the entity. The entity’s whole number of seats is divided the same way and each list’s direct seats are subtracted. Names come in order from the list’s compensatory list, skipping anyone already elected directly.

Within a list, seats go first to candidates with at least 20% of the list’s votes, most votes first (marked “preference”), then in the order they stand on the list. Each constituent people is guaranteed at least four seats in the Federation House and the RS Assembly. That rule is reported for each chamber above but not applied, so where a people is short, the last seats here are not the ones CIK will certify.

Everything comes from CIK: votes for every list and candidate, each list’s order and each candidate’s declared nationality, and the seats per constituency from its results site; the compensatory lists from the certified lists it published. The fetched data is here as one file. The close calls rerun the whole chamber, compensatory seats included, for every list in every constituency.